Introduction: Future Visions & Current Concerns

And now for real!
PV has long been an elegant, but harmless technology. Unlimited solar photons to multi-purpose electrons; it is hard to think of a more appealing energy source. On the other hand, PV contributions to electricity consumption, let alone energy consumption, were negligible or marginal at best. The world is not impressed by gigawatts; it requires terawatts to make a difference. PV electricity was a high-end product for the visionary few, and substantial financial incentives were needed to kick-start the PV market.

This will change soon. The coming decade will mark the transition to huge self-sustained markets for PV; markets where PV can compete with other technologies without financial support. In the two exciting papers in this section, the authors independently sketch the expected development of PV until 2020. Their message is no less than spectacular. To some it may even be unbelievable. I think it is realistic and fully supported by historic trends.

Over the next decade, PV will become competitive with a significant fraction of total electricity generation worldwide. The installed PV capacity may therefore reach the terawatt level by 2020. This, however, is not to be taken for granted. Intelligent market development mechanisms remain essential in the transition period from incentive-driven to self-sustained markets. Further research, development and technology innovation will be more important than ever. At the megawatt-scale, “mistakes” are cheap; at the terawatt-scale, they are very costly, while preventing them requires only a modest investment.

If you were not yet convinced about the bright future of PV, please read these articles. If you were convinced already, read them anyway. I am sure they will bring you new insights. Enjoy!

FPV4_Intro_FVCC_Sinke.pdf