Future Visions & Current Concerns
120 years at the top. How did we get there? For this many years, DECKER Anlagenbau GmbH has managed to correctly assess technological developments and gear the company toward the current needs of the industry. Today the company builds silicon recycling systems for the photovoltaic industry, and once again has its finger on the pulse of time. Where once iron and steel was cast, now customized units are built for wet chemical surface treatment. The company’s history reads like a journey through the industry’s history.
Christian Breyer, Reiner Lemoine Institut
Grid parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic diffusion. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries, representing more than 98 percent of world population and more than 99 percent of global gross domestic product. The first grid parity events are occurring right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid parity events throughout most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75 to 90 percent of total global electricity market.
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Dick Swanson, SunPower Corporation
Introduction
In this period of PV industry foment, it is useful to step back and take stock of where our industry is headed. We are clearly entering a new phase characterized by slower growth and declining module prices. The overheated 66 percent CAGR seen over the last five years is now but a distant memory. Most pundits now forecast that 2011 will be relatively flat in terms of megawatt sales compared to 2010. Growth will be a more sedate 20 percent per year for the next five years, increasing to perhaps 40 percent for the following five years. This is not a disaster, for if this comes to pass, the shipments in 2020 will be nearly 200 GW, and the dollar volume of module sales around $150 billion with the average module ASP of $0.79/W (based on a historic learning curve projection). The installed PV generation capacity will be approaching 1 terawatt (724 GW according to the math), representing about 5 percent of the world’s electric energy production. This is to be compared to perhaps 0.4 percent this year. By any measure, this will be a remarkable accomplishment. A closer look reveals that this may overstate the market somewhat.
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Wim C. Sinke, Staff Member Solar Energy,Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
And now for real!
PV has long been an elegant, but harmless technology. Unlimited solar photons to multi-purpose electrons; it is hard to think of a more appealing energy source. On the other hand, PV contributions to electricity consumption, let alone energy consumption, were negligible or marginal at best. The world is not impressed by gigawatts; it requires terawatts to make a difference. PV electricity was a high-end product for the visionary few, and substantial financial incentives were needed to kick-start the PV market.
Robert E. Geer, Professor, Nanoscale Science; VP, Academic AffairsCollege of Nanoscale Science and Engineering; University at Albany
Is the recent acquisition of a majority ownership in PV manufacturer Sun Power Corporation by the French petrochemical giant, Total, a commitment to “renewables” diversification by the oil and gas industry, or is it a reprise of similar actions in the ’70s driven by America’s first “energy crisis”?
That is the question posed by K.V. Ravi, CTO of Crystal Solar, Inc, a leader in the development of thin, single-crystal Si technologies for PV. Based on his personal experience in leading the development of PV technologies in both the semiconductor (AMAT) and oil (Mobil) industries, Dr. Ravi contrasts the past PV ventures of the petrochemical industries with the current renewable energy landscape. His perspective from both a technological and business vantage point offers keen insight into the decline of the petrochemical industries past ventures into large-scale PV innovation and manufacturing, including the offshore transfer of much of the technology developed under those efforts and whether the landscape between then and now has truly changed.
K.V. Ravi, Crystal Solar, Inc.
A short, personal historical perspective on the entry and exit of big oil into photovoltaic technology development and manufacture is presented. With the recent revived interest of some oil companies in PV, are there lessons to be learned from the past to make such alliances successful?
T. Patrick Walsh, Greenlight Planet Inc.
The quest to replace fossil-fueled electrical grids with solar energy has been the underlying motivator for most progress in photovoltaics – the focus of researchers, entrepreneurs and policymakers. Human-ity’s desperate need for a renewable alternative makes grid parity both a noble and lucrative goal. But the most desperate quarter of humanity, namely the 1.6 billion rural people living without electricity in developing countries, pay far higher energy prices than do grid-connected people.
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Wim C. Sinke, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
Where technology and passion meet ...
Photovoltaics: from milliwatts to gigawatts with only one building block – the solar cell. From small stand-alone systems for rural use via medium-sized grid-connected, building-integrated systems to large-scale power plants with just one component: the solar module. Examples illustrating two of the major strengths of photovoltaics: modularity and versatility.
Scott Brusaw, Solar Roadways
A Solar Roadway is built out of Solar Road Panels: structurally engineered cases that can be driven upon and contain electronics including solar cells and LEDs. The generation of electricity allows the Solar Roadway (or parking lot, airstrip, playground, bike path, etc.) to pay for itself over its life span.
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Torsten Brammer, Sunfilm AG
In PV, along the value chain, power is the good that changes the owner. Most prominently, the panel manufacturer sells a certain volume of power generation capability to the system developer. At the end of the value chain, electricity is sold that is not measured in the unit of power but in the unit of energy. Hence, the measurement of the power and the conversion from power to energy needs to be very precise to make sure that the rooftop system owner or the company that runs a utility-scale plant makes profit. With power and energy being the key goods, the following question arises: Is the industry doing a good job in quantifying these key parameters?
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